US Recession Risk Surges to 52% on Polymarket: Understanding the 10% Overnight Increase
On April 3, Polymarket showed a significant rise in the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025, jumping from 22% to 52%. This surge follows the announcement of a new trade policy that imposes a 10% tariff on all imports and much higher tariffs on goods from 60 countries. Economists warn this could lead to ...