“Buckle up for a financial rollercoaster as the bond market braces itself for an impending wave of US Treasurys, signaling a potential storm of debt-induced shockwaves on Wall Street.”
Investors are eagerly awaiting the Treasury Department’s upcoming quarterly refunding statement, which will outline the department’s bond issuance plans for the next three months. This update comes as Wall Street braces for another potential shock in the US debt market.
In recent weeks, there have been signs of weakness in investor demand for Treasurys, coinciding with the government’s increasing deficits and the subsequent flood of debt into the market. This has raised concerns about the bond market’s appetite for additional Treasurys and has contributed to a historic price collapse.
The Treasury Department has already hinted that the supply of Treasurys will need to continue increasing. Assistant Treasury Secretary for Financial Markets, Josh Frost, stated in September that “further gradual increases in coupon auction sizes will likely be necessary in future quarters,” specifically referring to longer-dated bonds.
Wall Street institutions are also raising their expectations for the size of US debt issuance. Bank of America, for example, has revised its deficit expectations higher for the coming years, projecting that US overspending will reach $2 trillion by fiscal year 2026. This increase in overspending will result in higher interest expenses on US borrowing, necessitating the issuance of more bonds by the Treasury.
Both Bank of America and JPMorgan anticipate an increase in auction sizes, with JPMorgan noting that fiscal 2023’s deficit surpassed its estimates by $100 billion. However, Morgan Stanley has a more cautious outlook, suggesting that the Treasury may opt for a slower pace of coupon increases than initially anticipated.
Overall, the upcoming refunding statement from the Treasury Department has garnered significant market attention. Investors will be closely watching for any indications of the government’s plans to address the rising supply of debt and the potential impact on the bond market.
(Source: Business Insider)
