Investors brace for a rocky morning as rising bond yields cast a shadow over the stock market, while the highly anticipated tech earnings reports add a layer of uncertainty to the mix.
The global markets are starting the week cautiously as investors keep an eye on the escalating tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing bond sell-off. Israel’s military continues to bomb Gaza and clash with Hezbollah, which has raised concerns about a potential ground invasion. However, there was some progress as aid trucks managed to get through, leading to a pullback in oil prices.
Despite this, bond markets remain unimpressed, with US 10-year yields creeping back up to 4.967%. Investors are demanding higher real yields and term premia, suggesting that the market is pricing in a new normal for interest rates that is above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.5%. The scale of US borrowing is also a concern, as Washington reported a $1.695 trillion budget deficit for fiscal 2023, a significant increase from the previous year.
In Japan, yields are also rising as the Bank of Japan discusses a further tweak to its yield curve control policy. This global rise in borrowing costs has led to the market pricing out any possibility of a Fed rate hike next week, and there is a near 70% chance that the Fed is done tightening altogether. Similarly, there is little expectation of a rate hike from the European Central Bank in their upcoming meeting, and there is even speculation about rate cuts from April next year.
The higher bond yields are also putting pressure on equity valuations and could lead to disappointment for companies that fail to meet market expectations this week. Several major companies, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, are set to report their earnings. This week will also see reports from Intel, IBM, General Motors, and General Electric, among others.
Overall, the cautious sentiment in the markets is driven by geopolitical tensions, the ongoing bond sell-off, and the potential impact on interest rates and equity valuations. Investors will be closely watching developments in the Middle East and the upcoming earnings reports to gauge the market’s direction.
Please note that this blog does not have a title or date and is an analysis of the current market situation.