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Recession probability been rising in recent months, says Abby Joseph Cohen

The S&P 500 rose on Friday, but Wall Street headed for a losing week amid concern that the Federal Reserve could raise rates more than expected.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline.

Shares of e-signature stock DocuSign lost 3.5% even after the company topped second-quarter estimates and posted rosy third-quarter guidance. RH dropped 10% as the home furnishings company reported soft guidance for third-quarter revenue.

Stocks are headed for a down week. The Dow and S&P 500 have slumped 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively, while the Nasdaq’s lost 1.6%.

Recent economic data, including lower-than-expected initial jobless claims, have reignited rate hike fears and concerns that the Federal Reserve may have more work ahead. As of Friday morning, traders are pricing in a more than 55% chance that policy makers will raise rates in November after a likely pause in September, according to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool.

“August was a difficult month, with weak data, and September may be the same,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network. “Beyond that, though, the prospects remain good. Any recession is likely some time away, which should keep markets healthy.”


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