Intel’s Stock on Track for Longest Rally in 18 Years

Introduction

Intel’s stock may be on track for its longest rally in 18 years, assuming it closes the day up. Bloomberg points out that the stock has ended up positive for the last nine days, and a tenth day would mark the longest rally since a 13-day positive streak back in May 2005.

Current Trading Situation

The stock opened over 1.1% in today’s trading, which would be its tenth session. A nine-day rally would tie previous streaks. Intel is down less than 1% as of this writing, so whether it will hit the mark is anyone’s guess.

Reasons for the Rally

According to Bloomberg, Intel’s shares have gone up “almost 19%” during the last ten days and are up 47% year to date. The financial publication suggests that, in part, the rally is due to comments from Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger at a Deutsche Bank conference that the company is likely to hit third-quarter projections.

Bloomberg’s other hypothesis is that Intel is “also benefiting amid renewed economic tension with China, which plans to expand a ban on the use of iPhones in some government agencies, pressuring shares of Apple Inc.”

Exposure to China

This may be partially true – Intel is the biggest domestic semiconductor fabricator in the U.S. But it’s also massively exposed to China, and geopolitical tensions between the United States and China is a risk factor Intel cites in its latest 10-Q quarterly report filing (PDF). In its most recent annual report (PDF), Intel claimed that China accounted for 27% of its total revenue in 2022. Some of that may be direct sales, while some may consist of chips going to companies in China that then ship out finished products.

Intel’s Third-Party Foundry Business

Under Gelsinger, Intel has been attempting to build a third-party foundry business, Intel Foundry Services. IFS’ most recent business partner is Tower Semiconductor; IFS will produce 65nm chips for Tower, which Intel attempted to acquire but could not after Chinese regulators scuttled the deal with delays.

Analyst Ratings

Bloomberg points out that even though the stock has been up for a few days in a row, Wall Street analysts haven’t been sending much love to the stock, with “Just over 20% of analysts” providing a bullish rating.