China’s exports fall for fourth consecutive month in August
China’s exports tumbled for the fourth consecutive month in August amid weak external demand and ongoing global supply chain upheaval, posing more challenges to the world’s second-largest economy as it struggles to carve out a path to a post-pandemic rebound.
Decline in Exports
- Exports fell by 8.8 per cent compared to a year earlier to US$284.9 billion last month
- The decline narrowed from a fall of 14.5 per cent in July
- Exceeded the forecast by Chinese financial data provider Wind for a 9.5 per cent decline
Decline in Imports
- Imports fell by 7.3 per cent last month to US$216.5 billion
- Narrowed from a 12.4 per cent decline in July
- Exceeded the expectations from Wind for a drop of 8.2 per cent
China’s total trade surplus in August stood at US$68.4 billion, down from US$80.6 billion in July.
Expert Opinions
“The typhoon in mid-July likely disrupted port operations in July and the normalization of that could add to trade growth in August,” said economists from Goldman Sachs.
Improved year-over-year growth of oil prices would have also helped import growth last month, they added.
Heron Lim, assistant director and economist at Moody’s Analytics, said exports are expected to continue their retreat as weakness across the broader global economy keeps new export orders soft.
“But as trade performance was already weakening from the second half of 2022, it will be slower,” he said.
The figures still suggest the headwinds remain despite some marginal improvement
Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, said while the August trade figures came in slightly better than expected, the overall momentum remains lukewarm.
“In general, the figures still suggest the headwinds remain despite some marginal improvement,” Zhou said.
“Looking ahead, whether China’s trade growth has already hit the bottom will hinge on several factors. The most important one is obviously the domestic demand where the recent property easing might provide some support in the short term.
“In the meantime, the rising oil prices suggest that the import growth in value terms might pick up somewhat in the foreseeable future.”
More to follow …
