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Bitcoin UTXOs Reflecting March 2020 ‘Black Swan’ Crash: Latest Research Unveils Surprising Insights

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Bitcoin Recovers from “Black Swan” Event: CryptoQuant Data

Bitcoin Recovers from “Black Swan” Event: CryptoQuant Data


Bitcoin (BTC) is recovering from a “black swan” event that hasn’t been seen since the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, according to data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. The platform revealed a major spike in loss-making unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) in one of its Quicktake posts on Sep. 7.

UTXOs in Loss Mirror March 2020

UTXOs represent BTC left over after an on-chain transaction is executed. CryptoQuant’s UTXOs in Loss metric tracks when large numbers of these UTXOs are worth more than they were when the BTC was originally bought. Currently, more of these UTXOs are in loss compared to their original acquisition price than at any time since March 2020.

During the March 2020 crash, BTC/USD dropped 60% to its lowest levels since March 2019. These lows were never seen again. Based on the current data from UTXOs in Loss, CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu suggests that Bitcoin may be experiencing, or already bouncing back from, a curveball selling event similar to March 2020.

Market Anxiety and Holding Sentiment

According to Woominkyu, when many UTXOs are in loss, investors might be more inclined to sell, indicating market anxiety. On the other hand, when most UTXOs are profitable, it suggests an optimistic outlook and a stronger holding sentiment among investors. At the end of August, 38% of UTXOs were in loss, a figure last seen in April 2020.

Bitcoin Speculators and Realized Price

Bitcoin remains locked in a tight range with no clear price trend. Cost basis data shows that the current spot price is caught between the acquisition prices of various investor cohorts. Short-term holders fall into aggregate loss when BTC/USD is below around $27,000. However, a full capitulation event has yet to be recorded on-chain.


While Bitcoin may be experiencing price weakness, on-chain data suggests that there may be more going on “under the hood.” The spike in loss-making UTXOs mirrors the black swan event of March 2020, indicating a potential curveball selling event. Investors should conduct their own research and make informed decisions when it comes to investments and trading.

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